The Syrian war forged a pragmatic tie between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Turkey and Vladimir Putin's Russia. Ankara backed rebel groups while Moscow shielded Bashar al‑Assad, yet both tolerated each other's moves, allowing Turkey to launch a 2016 incursion after Russia cleared Syrian airspace. The arrangement gave Moscow leverage in the Middle East and eased Turkey's strained NATO relations in the region.

The balance shifted after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left Moscow isolated and dependent on Ankara, which refused Western sanctions. Turkish ports became hubs for Russian oil, investment and trade, granting Istanbul newfound bargaining power. When Assad fell in late 2024, Moscow courted Syria’s interim leader Ahmed al‑Sharaa, while Turkey emerged as the dominant regional player for Ankara.

Ankara now leverages that leverage to court Kyiv, using a Turkish state jet to ferry President Volodymyr Zelensky to Syria for talks on military and energy cooperation. Ukraine supplies drone expertise and air‑defence teams to Gulf states, complementing Turkey’s own ties there. The realignment sidelines Putin, giving Turkey a path to assert its NATO role while Ukraine gains a foothold in the Middle East.