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Supreme Court Hands Trump Mixed Wins on Agency Power, Tariffs, Birthright Citizenship

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The Supreme Court closed its 2025-2026 term Tuesday with a split decision on President Trump's agenda, expanding executive authority over independent agencies while blocking his tariff and birthright citizenship moves. The 6-3 conservative majority delivered victories on agency removal powers, campaign finance limits, and immigration enforcement, but crossed ideological lines to reject the administration's boldest economic and constitutional claims.

For markets, the Trump v. Slaughter ruling stands out. By striking down removal protections for Federal Trade Commission members and overruling a 91-year precedent, the Court gave the president direct control over independent regulators that oversee mergers, antitrust, and consumer protection. Roberts wrote that subordinates exercising presidential power "are subject to removal by him" — a shift that could reshape regulatory enforcement.

The Court also invalidated coordinated spending caps in NRSC v. FEC, unleashing party committees to spend freely alongside candidates ahead of midterms. Kavanaugh's opinion frames this as equal treatment for all parties. Meanwhile, the tariff defeat in Learning Resources v. Trump clarified that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize duties — a constraint on executive trade policy.

Birthright citizenship survived a 6-3 rebuke in Trump v. Barbara, with Roberts anchoring the 14th Amendment's guarantee. The TPS ruling allows deportation proceedings for 356,000 Haitian and Syrian immigrants. Together, the decisions map a Court willing to expand presidential personnel power but resistant to unilateral economic rewrites — a framework businesses should factor into regulatory and trade planning.