On Thursday, employees and other insiders at Elon Musk’s rocket company will be released from their first stock “lockup” and can start selling some of their shares.

Since SpaceX’s IPO on June 12 at $135 a share, the stock has fallen nearly 20% — closing at $108.37 on Friday, erasing a $772.8 billion market‑cap loss between June and July. Investors are already showing reluctance, and the debut is being viewed as a cautionary tale for upcoming mega‑cap AI IPOs such as Anthropic and OpenAI.

Now, more supply is arriving. On Thursday, SpaceX employees and early investors will be able to sell 911.5 million shares—about 12% of the total, exceeding the 640 million currently on the market. Venture capitalist Paul Kedrosky notes many need the cash, creating downward pressure as short sellers pile in.

“When lockups expire, that does put downward pressure on stock prices,” says University of Florida economist Jay Ritter, warning of a possible further dip. However, short sellers will eventually have to buy back shares, which can support the price. The SpaceX unlock may signal a broader market shift for AI‑related IPOs, with similar lockup expirations expected later this year.