OPEC Plus decided on Sunday to keep oil production flat for October, maintaining September 2026 required levels, as Brent crude prices spiked after military strikes resumed in the Persian Gulf. The move marks the first time since April the group has opted against boosting output, despite prior monthly increases being largely symbolic due to market disruptions from the war in Iran. Participating countries included Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, with the next meeting set for Oct. 4.

The decision follows a breakdown in a monthlong lull in Gulf fighting, triggered by U.S. strikes on Iranian rocket sites and sea-mine operations near Larak Island, prompting Iranian retaliation and U.S. strikes on three Iranian oil tankers. Brent crude closed at around $96 a barrel on Friday. OPEC’s unity is under strain, with Venezuela potentially exiting after U.S. efforts to seize control of its oil reserves and the UAE’s prior departure in April.

Venezuela, a founding OPEC member, produces 1.12 million barrels daily and remains exempt from quotas due to low output from sanctions and aging infrastructure. Experts like Jacques Rousseau of Clearview Energy Partners and Homayoun Falakshahi of Kpler note any future quotas on Venezuela are unlikely soon, as significant production recovery would take years. Falakshahi called a Venezuelan exit “a real probability” but largely symbolic, warning it would weaken OPEC’s market influence.