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Oil spikes spark demand destruction concerns

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Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28, reviving a decades‑old concern known as “demand destruction.” The conflict has choked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting traffic and prompting analysts at Goldman Sachs to warn that sustained high prices could erode consumption. Traders now watch the market for signs of lasting demand loss.

Goldman’s March note was echoed by the International Energy Agency, which projected oil demand to fall by 1.5 million barrels per day this quarter. MIT energy economist Catherine Wolfram said the phrase is not a formal economic term but reflects consumers’ inability to afford fuel, forcing them to substitute Zoom meetings for commutes or shorten vacations. Some governments, like South Korea, have urged citizens to bike and shave shower time.

Long‑term, the shift toward electric vehicles and renewable power could embed lower oil use even if prices retreat. Wolfram warned that the most troubling metric remains the volume of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel still purchased at elevated rates. With refineries damaged and supply routes uncertain, the market may stay compressed, pressuring profit margins for downstream firms.