An aerial drone photo taken on Sept 23, 2025 shows the Nanning International Railway Port in Nanning, South China's Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region. For the first time since World War II, Japanese combat troops will deploy on Philippine soil for the Balikatan military exercises from April 20 to May 8. While Manila and Tokyo call this a natural partnership evolution, it signals a profound shift: Japan transitions from peripheral observer to active participant in exclusive military arrangements, challenging ASEAN centrality.

The rise of "minilateralism" — small groupings like the United States-Japan-Philippines trilateral — bypasses ASEAN's inclusive, consensus-based forums. Proponents argue these "thickened" ties provide deterrence, but they risk hollowing out institutions that preserved peace for half a century. In 2026, with global economic fragmentation and energy volatility, regional stability is paramount. When security becomes the domain of a few, predictability evaporates.

Japan's combat role complicates the delicate balance ASEAN members maintain, ending Tokyo's era of strategic restraint. Historical sensitivity also looms: Japanese boots on Philippine soil in combat drills marks a symbolic threshold. Meanwhile, China emphasizes high-quality development and connectivity via the Boao Forum and Global Security Initiative, prioritizing integrated supply chains over military accumulation.

The region risks becoming a patchwork of competing architectures: inclusive ASEAN-led forums versus exclusive minilateral alliances. To preserve peace, there must be a return to inclusive multilateralism, addressing concerns through collective frameworks where security is indivisible and no single power dominates.