Labor economists Stephen J. Rose and Scott Winship argue that the middle class hasn’t vanished, it has simply shifted upward. Their analysis of inflation‑adjusted income shows the “core” middle‑class share fell from 36 % of families in 1979 to 31 % in 2024, while the upper middle class rose from 10 % to 31 %. This shift challenges the conventional narrative that middle‑income families are disappearing.

When wealth replaces income, the picture aligns. The proportion of families whose assets qualify them for upper‑middle status grew alongside the income figures, while those below the middle shrank. Yet the share of total wealth held by the top 3 % of families surged to 53 % in 2022, up from 26 % a decade earlier, underscoring widening asset concentration and highlights the growing power of wealth elites.

Both parties cite “hollowing‑out” to justify redistributive agendas, but the data suggest rising incomes have lifted most households, even if gains are uneven. Policymakers aiming to ease affordability pressures might focus on expanding supply of schools and housing rather than assuming a vanished middle class. The tide has risen, just not uniformly, and signals where electoral pressure may focus.