A weakened Iran, following military setbacks, will not fundamentally reshape the Middle East, according to a new analysis by two former U.S. diplomats. Daniel C. Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller argue that while Operation Epic Fury may degrade Iran's military, missile stocks, and proxy capabilities, it won't spark the transformative change hoped for. The authors caution against assuming this conflict will yield substantial regional peace, democracy, or economic progress.

History offers little optimism, citing the failed 'new chapter' after the Cold War and the unfulfilled promises of the Arab Spring. 47 years of conflict and instability are unlikely to dissolve overnight.