Bret Stephens outlines four possible outcomes for the ongoing conflict with Iran, ranging from regime change to state collapse. The most optimistic scenario involves mass demonstrations overthrowing the government, potentially emboldened by American and Israeli air support. However, Stephens cautions that the regime remains capable of brutal repression despite military setbacks.

A second possibility involves regime modification, where Iran's leadership complies with U.S. and Israeli demands while maintaining power. This seems unlikely under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, but could emerge if his reign proves short-lived. The seizure of Kharg Island, which handles 90 percent of Iran's oil exports, could force compliance by cutting off regime revenues.

Stephens advocates for aggressive military action including seizing Kharg Island, mining ports, and destroying nuclear capabilities. He argues this represents the most realistic path to victory at the lowest cost in lives and resources. The columnist contends that critics who warned of another Iraq have been proven wrong, suggesting the one-month conflict could ultimately give Iran's people their best chance at freedom.