Bret Stephens argues that while striking a deal with Iran seems appealing to end the Strait of Hormuz blockade and avoid energy price spikes, the risks outweigh the benefits. The global economy depends on open shipping lanes, and military options appear costly and dangerous.

Stephens identifies three major dangers: Iran could emerge from conflict as a perceived victor, emboldening future threats; the regime has a track record of violating nuclear agreements dating back to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action; and President Trump faces political peril if voters see the war effort as futile.

With the US running low on missile interceptors and Trump's midterm prospects at stake, Stephens contends that negotiation may reward Iranian bad behavior. He warns that any deal risks becoming merely an enticement for future blockades rather than lasting peace.

Instead, Stephens advocates maintaining military pressure, suggesting Trump should systematically target Iranian military facilities until securing meaningful concessions. The administration can still deny Iran its claim of victory against 'Great and Little Satans,' but backing down now would doom the presidency.