President Trump announced a cease-fire with Iran ahead of weekend negotiations, sparking debate among opinion writers about the war’s future. Stephen Stromberg moderated a discussion with Nicholas Kristof, Bret Stephens, and Megan K. Stack, who disagreed on whether renewed violence is inevitable. Stephens argued the conflict “isn’t over,” citing Iran’s refusal to abandon uranium enrichment and Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah. Kristof warned that stalled talks could lead to “whacks” between sides but hoped for ambiguous coexistence. Stack doubted Trump would impose tough red lines, predicting he might concede control of the Strait of Hormuz to secure a deal.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint: Stephens demanded it remain an open international waterway, while Kristof prioritized curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions to prevent regional arms races. Stack suggested Trump’s desperation might lead him to accept Iranian tolls on shipping—a $500 billion revenue opportunity for Tehran. All agreed Iran’s proxies in Lebanon and Yemen complicate peace efforts.

Experts disagreed on Trump’s leverage. Stephens dismissed Iran’s “bluffing genius,” arguing the U.S. could militarily enforce Hormuz access. Kristof noted China’s potential opposition to blocking Iranian tolls, while Stack warned Trump’s weakened position risks emboldening adversaries. The debate underscored a stark reality: U.S. foreign policy faces a high-stakes balancing act between deterrence and diplomacy.

Key entities: Strait of Hormuz, $500 billion, Hezbollah, enriched uranium. Primary keyword: "Iran cease-fire negotiations". Secondary keywords: "Strait of Hormuz tolls", "nuclear enrichment deal", "U.S.-Iran conflict", "regional stability". Content type: article