Nicholas Kristof argues the United States is already mired in a quagmire in Iran, far beyond the debate about whether it will become one. Oil prices would likely surge further as Iran potentially blocks the Strait of Hormuz, even while its own tankers pass, causing scarcity in critical products like fertilizer and generic drugs. President Masoud Pezeshkian demands three huge concessions from the US: recognition of Iran's nuclear rights, war reparations, and guarantees against future attacks. A senior Iranian military figure states the war's end depends on US forces leaving the Persian Gulf. Kharg Island, the hub of Iran's oil industry, is a key target, with Senator Lindsey Graham urging Trump to seize it to cripple Iran's economy.

However, seizing territory risks prolonged occupation and escalation, potentially drawing in Yemen's Houthis and cyber attacks. The war's intensification could deepen the nuclear threat, as Iran may rush towards a weapon for deterrence. Trump's least-bad option might be declaring victory and negotiating a pause, though this risks leaving the US as the ultimate loser.