Ross Douthat revisits his 2020 prediction that the 2020s would represent China's peak decade of power before American fortunes improved. While he acknowledges one forecast was wrong — America’s Covid response proved more effective than China's eventual lockdown trap — the decade has otherwise unfolded as expected, with China's industrial advantage in manufacturing, robotics, ships and drones surpassing American capabilities.

The long-term outlook, however, tells a different story. China's fertility rate crashed to 1.0 births per woman in 2025 — half the replacement level — marking the fourth consecutive year of population decline. A striking 32% of Chinese adults aged 18 to 24 now report "no desire for children," up from just 5% in 2012. Combined with 2021 being the peak of nominal GDP convergence with the United States, the trajectory suggests China may never become the world's largest economy.

Douthat argues this demographic collapse — not American resilience — may be the decisive factor shorting the "Chinese century." The question becomes whether Xi Jinping recognizes these trends and acts soon, or whether Chinese hubris about Western decline leads Beijing to wait until its best window has closed.