A New York Times/Siena University poll shows Democrats leading nationally by 11 percentage points, 52 to 41 percent, among likely voters in House races. This is the largest national margin since 2008 and would likely produce a large Democratic House majority and a real chance to flip the Senate. While polling errors in 2016, 2020, and 2018 raise skepticism, the current lead is large enough to survive significant deviation.
The G. O. P. could avert disaster by reclaiming reliable voters, but the trend line shows no sign of recovery.
President Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 34 percent among registered voters—his lowest in Times/Siena polling—falling below his supposed "floor" of support. This decline is particularly damaging in key red-state Senate races where his approval hovers near 40 percent. Historically, the president’s party suffers in midterms, especially when approval is low.
Unlike 2018, when Trump maintained over 50 percent approval in pivotal states, his current unpopularity threatens Republican control of both chambers.
Source: New York Times Top Stories · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing