The discovery of New World screwworm fly larvae in a Texas calf has ranchers bracing for another crisis. The parasite, eradicated from the U.S. in the 1960s, can kill livestock by laying eggs in open wounds. Officials established a 12-mile quarantine and deployed sterile flies to contain the outbreak.

Ground beef prices have surged to $6.90 per pound, up 32% from two years ago, with the Agriculture Department projecting an additional 12.1% increase in 2026. The U.S. cattle herd sits at its smallest level in 75 years, creating upward pressure on prices. However, consecutive blows have prevented herd rebuilding, leaving ranchers in a difficult cycle.

Drought conditions compound the screwworm threat, with 57% of the nation's cattle inventory facing feed shortages. Ranchers are selling cattle months early, including over 9,000 head in one Wyoming market week. The ban on Mexican cattle imports—normally supplying 15% of Texas feeder cattle—has already shuttered a major Lubbock feedlot.

The potential economic damage is severe: a widespread outbreak could cost Texas ranchers $732 million and $1.8 billion for the state economy. JBS chief executive Wesley Batista Filho acknowledged the recovery cycle is taking longer than hoped. Ranchers now weigh whether to wean calves early or sell cow-calf pairs, physically limited by forage conditions.