Mashenka bakery owner Denis V. Maksimov fears his three Moscow-area bakeries will collapse under a 3,500% tax increase. The Kremlin’s war-funded tax reforms have pushed small businesses to the brink, with Maksimov’s monthly income plummeting from $5,800 to $2,000 after taxes. His plea to President Vladimir Putin during a televised call-in show sparked temporary support but failed to halt the financial freefall. The bakery’s logo, “Once, our bread made its way to the Kremlin,” symbolizes the personal toll of Russia’s economic struggles.

Russia’s economy, reliant on volatile oil revenues and war spending, faces a 90% budget deficit. Tax hikes on small enterprises like Mashenka have become a survival test, with owners reporting dwindling customer demand as citizens cut nonessential spending. In Kraskovo, Maksimov’s pastries are now seen as a luxury, reflecting broader economic hardship. The government’s attempt to ease the blow through an adjustment period has done little to reverse the trend.

While Russia avoids total collapse, $165 billion in annual war costs strain public finances. Officials warn the oil-driven windfall from the U.S.-Israeli conflict is temporary. Experts argue the tax burden risks pushing the civilian sector into recession, with small businesses like Mashenka bearing the brunt. Maksimov’s story underscores the human cost of a war economy, where even a bakery’s survival hinges on political goodwill and fleeting economic relief.