U.S. intelligence agencies assess Iran is not currently willing to negotiate an end to the U.S.-Israeli war, complicating President Trump's stated goal of concluding the conflict within weeks. The assessments indicate Tehran believes it holds a strong position in the fighting and sees no need to yield to American demands. While Iran maintains open channels, it distrusts the U.S. and doubts Trump's commitment to negotiations, citing his previous attacks during nuclear talks.

This stance aligns with Iranian officials' rejection of Trump's claim that Tehran requested a cease-fire. The assessment, consistent since the war's start, complicates Trump's timeline, as any Iranian decision to continue fighting would undermine his stated objective. Strait of Hormuz closure remains a critical flashpoint, with Iran demanding safe passage for oil tankers before considering talks. China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, faces market volatility from the conflict, underscoring the global economic stakes. The diplomatic impasse persists despite intermediaries like Pakistan attempting to mediate, with Iran insisting on U.S. commitment to serious negotiations rather than a temporary cease-fire. Mojtaba Khamenei now leads Iran's theocratic regime, complicating any potential deal.

Trump's vacillating war goals and threats to expand targets to energy infrastructure further hinder diplomatic efforts, leaving markets uncertain about conflict duration and oil supply stability.