Phrostbite Italian Ice owners in Houston face a $90 gas tank instead of $70 after Iran conflict spiked oil prices to $100/barrel. To combat soaring fuel costs, the couple altered delivery routes and reduced staff hours, but profit margins still shrank. Their catering packages now cost $150 (up from $100), with small cups nearing $8.50—a stark contrast to their 2021 pandemic-era launch.

War-driven energy prices, now averaging $3.98/gallon nationally, ripple beyond pumps. United Airlines’ CEO warned of 20% ticket hikes if oil stays elevated, while Goldman Sachs links $10 oil jumps to 0.04% core inflation increases. For small businesses like Phrostbite, flexibility is limited: 64% of polled firms reported rising expenses, per Small Business Majority.

Larger corporations absorb shocks via supply chain tweaks, but Phrostbite’s owner noted, "We don’t want to keep raising prices." They’re using 2022’s $125/barrel peak as a benchmark, calculating margins under worst-case scenarios. The Fed warns oil’s "big effects" leak into broader inflation, complicating the central bank’s 2% target.

The Lawsons’ story mirrors a broader economic tightrope. With tariffs and inflation already straining small businesses, energy volatility threatens growth plans. Phrostbite’s 2026 revival—including a brick-and-mortar store—hangs in balance, as owners grapple with costs beyond their control. "One thing we don’t want," Mr. Lawson said, "is to keep raising prices for customers."