The World Trade Organization said Thursday that it expected global trade in goods to grow by 3.9 percent this year, almost double its March forecast, driven by demand for artificial intelligence-related equipment and chips. Johanna Hill, a deputy director-general at the WTO, said the resilience of global trade has been a striking feature over the past six months. Higher energy prices and shipping disruptions caused by the war in Iran have created headwinds, but businesses and supply chains have adapted.
The WTO cautioned that resilience was not uniform, with the Middle East hit hardest. Robert Staiger, the organization’s chief economist, noted that crude oil exports from the Middle East fell 24 percent in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, while liquefied natural gas exports dropped 47 percent. However, countries outside the region increased production of energy and fertilizer to compensate.
Trade in A. I.-enabling goods grew 67 percent in the first half of 2026, accounting for about half of the increase in global trade value. Mr. Staiger said 2026 was shaped by two opposing forces: the Middle East conflict and a strong wave of A. I. infrastructure investment, with the latter currently outweighing the former.
The WTO expects trade growth to accelerate to 4.1 percent next year.
Source: New York Times Business · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing