The International Energy Agency called the Middle East conflict the largest supply disruption in oil‑market history. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell from about 20 mb/d to a trickle, and Gulf producers cut output by at least 10 mb/d.

The IMF trimmed its 2026 growth forecast from 3.4 % to 3.1 % in April and only to 3.0 % in July, far above the 2.0 % worst‑case scenario.

High prices spurred rapid market adjustments: American output, especially from Brazil and Guyana, offset more of the shortfall than expected, while OECD stocks dropped 225 mn barrels, providing ~3.8 mb/d of relief. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve released 30 mn barrels in the past month, leaving 319 mn barrels, near its operational floor of 150‑160 mn barrels.

A parallel AI‑hardware export boom from Taiwan, Korea, Thailand and Malaysia lifted growth in Korea, China and Japan, but the JPMorgan‑warned financial entanglement means a sudden AI investment pull‑back could trigger a deeper shock than the oil crisis.