The Warner Bros. Discovery takeover battle hinges on whether Paramount Skydance will bid above $30 per share, according to MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman. Warner Bros. Discovery received a seven-day waiver to negotiate with Paramount Skydance, with the bidder signaling willingness to reach $31 per share but not its 'best and final' offer.

Fishman expects Paramount Skydance to push to at least $32 per share to pressure Netflix into matching, though MoffettNathanson suggests a $34 per share bid could end the bidding war. For Netflix, the deal math becomes less compelling at higher prices, with the firm's base case showing no accretion beyond $30 per share.

The central question is whether Netflix can remain disciplined and walk away if Paramount Skydance pushes significantly higher. MoffettNathanson notes that Netflix shareholders may benefit regardless of the outcome, as the longer-term value of Warner Bros.' assets isn't fully reflected in the stock price.