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UK REIT Earnings Preview: UBS Bullish on Logistics, Cautious on Offices

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UK real estate investment trusts begin reporting full-year 2025 results next week, with SEGRO leading the season on February 20. UBS analysts have outlined their sector outlook, maintaining a constructive view on logistics properties while expressing caution about office and retail assets.

For SEGRO, UBS expects capital expenditure guidance of around £600 million for 2026, representing a 50% year-over-year increase. The bank forecasts 1.3% portfolio value uplift for 2025, driven by improved logistics demand and stronger pre-let activity. Data centers remain a key focus, with investors watching for updates on SEGRO's Slough capacity and Park Royal joint venture with Pure DC.

UBS takes a more cautious stance on Hammerson and Derwent London. Slowing French indexation suggests softer rental growth outlook for Hammerson in 2026, while margin improvement remains challenging. For Derwent London, UBS expects assets trading below book value, with AI displacement of white-collar jobs negatively impacting office demand. Overall, UBS's UK coverage trades at a -20% discount to EPRA NTA, with Buy ratings on SEGRO, Shaftesbury Capital and Landsec, while rating Great Portland Estates, Derwent London and Hammerson as Sell.