The UK housing sector faces potential policy-driven upside as Barclays highlights a revived Help to Buy scheme’s impact. The brokerage maintained overweight ratings on Bellway and Barratt Redrow, upgrading Vistry Group to equal weight, citing a 20% earnings upside by 2027 if a housebuilder-funded equity loan program launches.

This scheme could lower mortgage payments for first-time buyers, aligning with long-term affordability averages, while boosting sector margins by 200 basis points per unit through reduced sales incentives. Barclays projected 85% earnings growth in a blue-sky scenario assuming 2019-level sales rates, though current completions lag at 150,000 annually, half the government’s 1.5 million-home target.