Persimmon PLC stands to gain significantly if the UK government revives its Help-to-Buy scheme, according to a recent JP Morgan research report. The bank estimates a new, first-time buyer-focused program could boost private sales rates by roughly 10%, potentially increasing private completions by about 6% on average. This impact, while substantial, is expected to be smaller than previous iterations due to the current higher interest rate environment and the scheme's narrower scope.

Berkeley Group Holdings and Vistry Group would likely see less benefit. Berkeley's higher average selling prices limit the scheme's positive impact, while only about a quarter of Vistry's completions are to the open market. The analysis suggests Persimmon benefits most due to its lower average selling price and higher exposure to first-time buyers.

The report positions Persimmon as the primary beneficiary among UK housebuilders, with Berkeley and Vistry facing more limited upside potential from the proposed revival.