Dutch TTF gas prices face a potential 40-50% surge to secure European supply amid escalating Qatari LNG disruptions, Bernstein analysts warn. The brokerage projects TTF prices may need to climb from current $16 per mmBtu to $22-28 per mmBtu to attract cargoes diverted from Asia, where prices have spiked above $20 per mmBtu following QatarEnergy's halted production and the Strait of Hormuz closure. This price gap means Europe currently loses the bidding war for U.S. LNG shipments, with analysts stating 'Europe is clearly losing that bidding war' at current differentials.

Bernstein estimates TTF needs another 40-50% jump just to maintain winter supply if Qatari outages persist beyond weeks, highlighting Europe's vulnerability despite its limited direct Qatari LNG exposure (8% of imports in 2025).