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Trump Tariff Refund Process Faces Legal Hurdles, Analysts Warn

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Raymond James analysts warn that the process for companies to claim refunds on tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court will be "lengthy and challenging." The court ruled President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping duties on trading partners unconstitutional, but questions remain about how firms will recover payments made before the levies were halted.U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced it will stop collecting the invalidated tariffs at 12:01 a.m. EST on Tuesday, though officials provided no clarity on whether importers will receive automatic refunds. Analysts note that affected businesses may need to file individual lawsuits or join class-action litigation to reclaim funds, as no streamlined reimbursement mechanism exists.The uncertainty extends beyond immediate refunds, with lawmakers potentially extending Trump’s 15% global tariffs after their 150-day expiration. Analysts at ING warned the president could restart the tariff cycle by declaring a new emergency, creating a "de facto perpetual tariff instrument." This legal and political ambiguity complicates business planning amid volatile markets.