Republicans are forecast to lose their narrow House majority in November's midterms, but President Trump's policy agenda may remain largely unaffected. According to Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth, Trump has advanced immigration, trade, and foreign policy priorities primarily through executive action, not congressional legislation. This approach insulates his agenda from a potential Democratic-controlled House.

Even if Democrats retake the House, they would lack the Senate majority needed to convict on impeachment or pass legislation. Structural barriers like the filibuster and veto override thresholds remain formidable. Betting markets give Democrats an 80% chance of House control but only 35% for the Senate. A 50-50 tie would leave Vice President Vance as the tiebreaker.

The economist also flags unconventional risks, including potential challenges to election results. While constitutional protections are strong, market volatility could follow any contested outcome. With the deficit already near 6% of GDP, new fiscal stimulus appears unlikely. Investors should watch for policy continuity rather than legislative gridlock.