Jefferies analysts have flagged growing pressure on Steve Madden's growth trajectory as wholesale headwinds intensify, with the footwear company's wholesale segment - accounting for roughly 70% of revenue - facing mounting resistance from retail partners. The brokerage warned that retailers are pushing back against double-digit price increases, potentially hampering the company's ability to drive its next growth phase.

Jefferies now expects 2026 earnings to fall closer to $2.20 per share, down from the previously anticipated high-$2 range, with consensus estimates for both revenue and profit potentially still too optimistic given the likelihood that wholesale challenges will persist for multiple quarters. The pressure is concentrated in wholesale channels rather than direct-to-consumer operations, where sales trends remain healthy with strong sell-in activity and no apparent issues in product assortment or styling.

While the firm does not see signs of product or brand weakness, the direct business is insufficient to offset weaker wholesale demand in the near term. Jefferies also highlighted the 2023 Almost Famous acquisition as a potential margin headwind, with fixed costs tied to the business potentially weighing on results if wholesale exposure to mass retail channels declines. The firm expects Kurt Geiger to continue performing well, supported by brand strength and expansion, though its contribution remains smaller relative to the core wholesale business and is unlikely to fully offset broader pressures.