The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil demand growth will slow to 850,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, down from previous estimates. This deceleration stems from economic uncertainties and higher crude prices, which dampen consumption.

However, supply-side disruptions—including severe U.S. winter storms, Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield outage, and sanctions-driven cuts from Russia and Venezuela—are also shaping the outlook. Russia’s exports fell by 350,000 bpd due to Western sanctions, while Venezuela’s production, though down, is expected to rebound after U.S. export sanctions eased.