Kepler upgraded Orsted to "buy" from "hold" on Monday, sending shares up more than 4% after raising its target price to DKK175 from DKK150, implying a 19.25% upside from the February 13 closing price.

The upgrade reflects Kepler's confidence in Orsted's upcoming capital expenditure reduction starting in 2028. The brokerage's rolled-forward valuation model shows full potential of DKK219 per share, though the target accounts for potential losses from halted U.S. projects.

Orsted, the world's largest offshore wind developer, reported capex of DKK54.98 billion for 2025. Kepler projects capex falling to DKK37.52 billion by 2027, which could reveal strong free cash flow generation from renewable energy operations that has been buried under expansion spending.