J.P. Morgan reshuffled European oil and gas ratings after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening 30% of seaborne crude and 20% of global LNG supply. The brokerage lifted its 2026 Brent forecast by $10 to $72 per barrel, citing risks to approximately 17% of global LNG flows. Supply losses could reach 3.3 million barrels per day by day eight of a closure.

Historical data shows oil prices have risen 30% on average in the three months following major producer unrest, with supply losses averaging 23% over six months. In a full Gulf shutdown, Brent could surge to $100-$120 per barrel. European gas storage sits near decade lows at just 18% full in Northwest Europe, amplifying supply concerns.

EnQuest saw the sharpest upgrade, with its price target jumping 127% to 25 GBp, implying 47% upside. Var Energi maintained its overweight rating with a 44 NOK target, offering 17% price upside plus a 12% dividend yield. Aker BP's target rose 35% to 308 NOK, while Harbour Energy's target climbed 17% to 270 GBp. The conflict has materially shifted near-term risk for oil and gas prices, increasing the likelihood that a geopolitical risk premium persists.