Oil prices climbed to a four-month high in Asian trade Thursday, driven by escalating US-Iran tensions and winter supply disruptions. The geopolitical strain, particularly Trump's consideration of new military action against Iran, prompted traders to attach a higher risk premium to oil. This comes as the dollar remains weak following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

The supply disruptions in the U.S. have compounded the price surge. Winter storms across the country have forced shutdowns of about 2 million barrels per day of crude production and disrupted Gulf coast exports. These output disruptions are expected to further tighten U.S. oil supplies, with recent government data showing an unexpected drop of 2.295 million barrels in inventories, far exceeding expectations.

Investors are watching closely as these geopolitical and supply factors could lead to further volatility in oil markets. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the potential for military action raise concerns about potential disruptions in Iranian crude output. Meanwhile, the winter storm's impact on U.S. production underscores the influence of weather on global oil supplies.

Looking ahead, traders will monitor developments in the U.S.-Iran relationship and the extent of supply disruptions. Any escalation in tensions could drive prices higher, while improvements in weather conditions might ease supply concerns. Investors should also keep an eye on the Fed's future moves, as currency fluctuations can impact commodity prices.