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Nvidia Earnings Preview: AI Demand Fuels Q4 Guidance Optimism

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Nvidia is set to report another quarter of robust growth, with analysts forecasting strong fourth-quarter results driven by accelerating AI infrastructure demand and next-generation chip shipments. Stifel analyst Ruben Roy expects revenue to align with prior estimates, citing continued momentum in data center spending and hyperscaler capital expenditure increases for 2026. KeyBanc forecasts $69 billion in Q4 revenue with first-quarter guidance of $74-75 billion.

Roy noted that CES conversations with management and higher hyperscaler capex outlooks suggest estimates are trending upward ahead of the report. KeyBanc's John Vinh highlighted tailwinds from Blackwell B300/GB300 shipments and China-bound H200 shipments contributing $3-3.5 billion to the quarter. Data center revenue is projected to rise 24% sequentially, though GDDR memory shortages could impact gaming segment performance.

Despite trading between $170 and $195 for months, Nvidia shares could see a breakout following the results, according to Trade Nation's David Morrison. Investors will focus on data center revenue, cloud spending, and margins, with the market particularly sensitive to any upside guidance surprises. As the world's largest company by market capitalization, Nvidia's performance remains critical for broader market sentiment amid questions about AI investment returns and competitive pressures.