Bernstein upgraded Newmont to Outperform from Market-Perform, raising its price target to $157 from $121, citing sharply higher long-term gold price forecasts. The brokerage lifted its gold outlook to $4,800 per ounce for 2026 and $6,100 per ounce for 2030, reflecting a new framework linking prices to central bank and ETF demand plus US rate cuts.

Gold demand has been driven primarily by central bank purchases that remained elevated since 2022 when Russia was cut off from SWIFT, while ETF flows act as swing factors tied to real interest rates. Bernstein's net demand model points to similar price outcomes across both approaches. The firm increased Newmont's EBITDA forecast by 26% to $21.9 billion, highlighting the company's leverage to rising gold prices.

A survey of 73 central banks showed 95% expect global gold reserves to rise next year, with 43% planning to increase their own holdings. Over five years, 76% foresee gold accounting for a larger share of reserves while 73% expect reduced dollar holdings. Additional catalysts include Newmont's new CEO and 2026 agenda, potential for improved relations with its largest joint venture partner, and guidance allowing room to beat production decline targets.