Neste's shares plummeted over 7% following the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 results. While overall group performance slightly exceeded expectations, the company's renewable products (RP) business outlook disappointed investors. The soft guidance for RP sales volume, coupled with a dividend proposal below analyst estimates, triggered the sell-off, impacting investor sentiment.

The disappointing RP volume guidance is a key concern. Analysts anticipated approximately 4.52 million tonnes, representing about 9% growth. However, Neste projects flat year-over-year sales volumes for 2026, following around 4.1 million tonnes in 2025. This divergence from market expectations fueled the negative reaction to the news.

Stronger performance in oil products partially offset the RP weakness. Oil products' EBITDA climbed significantly, exceeding analyst forecasts. However, the company anticipates a year-over-year decline in oil product sales due to a planned turnaround. Capital expenditure for 2026 is forecast to be in line with consensus.

Investors should watch Neste's upcoming margin commentary closely. The flat RP volume outlook will likely continue to weigh on the company's stock price. The renewable fuels market is highly competitive, and any slowdown in volume growth raises concerns about future profitability. The proposed dividend cut also contributed to the negative sentiment.