Norwegian salmon producer Mowi warned its fourth-quarter operational earnings will miss analyst forecasts, sending its shares down more than 2% in mid-morning trading. The company projects earnings before interest and taxes of roughly 213 million euros, a figure Kepler Cheuvreux analysts say is 7% below consensus due to weaker downstream and farming margins.

The earnings shortfall comes despite a record 559,000-ton harvest in 2025, up 11.4% from the prior year. Analysts note the salmon market is experiencing soft spot prices from a supply shock and potential U.S. tariff threats, which could squeeze margins in the short to medium term even as Mowi aims to boost volumes to 650,000 tons by 2029.

Investors will get a clearer picture when Mowi reports full quarterly results on February 11. The key question is whether the current price pressure is a temporary blip or a sign of deeper challenges for the world’s largest salmon farmer, which operates in a notoriously volatile industry subject to disease, environmental regulations, and shifting consumer demand.