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Morgan Stanley's Intuit Bull Case: Doubling Revenue and Stock

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Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss argues Intuit is entering the early days of two compelling product cycles. The firm believes the software giant's expansion into Mid-Market Accounting and Assisted Tax markets, sized at $89 billion and $37 billion respectively, could ultimately double revenue, earnings, and its stock price.

Weiss points to strong early momentum, with Intuit's Mid-Market segment growing 40% year-over-year in fiscal 2025 and TurboTax Live expanding 47%. This execution, he says, puts the company on a viable path to 20% total revenue growth by fiscal 2030—a scenario he claims is not reflected in its current valuation.

At a 22x forward P/E, Intuit trades at its cheapest multiple since 2014. Achieving 20% growth would unlock Morgan Stanley's 'Triple Double' bull case, projecting revenue rising from $19 billion to $43 billion and EPS from $20 to $53 by fiscal 2030, potentially lifting the stock from $535 to $1,300.