Shares of Micron Technology fell after an analyst predicted the company would receive zero orders for Nvidia's next-generation HBM4 memory. Initially, Micron's stock rose, fueled by Amazon's massive $200 billion capital expenditure forecast, which signaled strong demand for memory chips. However, the revised outlook from Semianalysis cast doubt on Micron's position in the high-margin AI memory market.

The research firm's downgrade cited "poor speed performance" from Micron's internal base die. Instead, SK Hynix and Samsung are expected to split the HBM4 supply, with approximately 70% and 30%, respectively. HBM is critical for advanced AI chips, and exclusion from Nvidia's product line could hinder Micron's growth in this crucial segment, despite Amazon's spending plans.

This news reflects the intense competition within the high-bandwidth memory market, driven by the surging demand for AI applications. Micron has been working to catch up with rivals like Hynix and Samsung, who have historically been ahead in HBM technology. Investors are closely watching Micron's ability to secure orders in this space.

Looking ahead, investors will be monitoring Micron's future earnings reports and any updates on its HBM4 development progress. The company's ability to secure contracts with other major AI chip makers will also be crucial. The AI memory market is set to be a key battleground for semiconductor manufacturers over the next several years.