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Lufthansa Q4 Profit Beats Forecasts But 2026 Outlook Uncertain

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Lufthansa reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with operating profit rising 2.6% to €480 million, about 4% ahead of consensus. The German airline group posted record annual revenue of €39.6 billion, up 5%, while operating profit climbed 25% to €2 billion. However, Lufthansa Airlines itself delivered a thin 0.9% operating margin despite a dedicated turnaround effort.

Currency tailwinds provided substantial support, with lower kerosene prices and a weak dollar saving €500 million and reduced flight irregularity costs falling €362 million. Non-core units carried the earnings weight, as Lufthansa Cargo operating profit rose 29% to €324 million and Lufthansa Technik held near-flat at €603 million despite U.S. tariff pressure. The passenger airlines carried 135 million guests at a record 83.2% seat load factor.

Management declined to provide specific 2026 profit guidance, citing Middle East uncertainty and geopolitical risks from Gulf hub concentration. CFO Till Streichert said earnings would "significantly increase" but offered no figure. The group proposed a 10% higher dividend of €0.33 per share. Despite beating results, the stock has fallen about 10% over the past four weeks, with RBC Capital Markets maintaining a "sector perform" rating and noting greater upside potential in other European airlines.