Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded Aperam to "hold" from "buy," citing a share price that has outpaced fundamentals. The stock gained over 35% since May 2025, prompting the brokerage to cut its 2025 and 2026 earnings forecasts by roughly 10% annually. The new target price of €34.90 implies a marginal downside from the current €35.46 level.

The revision reflects persistent weakness in the European stainless steel market. Aperam confirmed its fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA will fall below the €74 million reported in the third quarter. The order book shows no recovery, and demand increases are only seasonal. In Brazil, demand declined due to seasonal factors, while pricing was pressured by non-stainless imports.

Kepler Cheuvreux noted delays in European trade defense measures, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which are unlikely to provide near-term support. Despite the downgrade, the brokerage sees longer-term prospects improving beyond 2026, raising its 2027 EBITDA estimate by 14.2% to €673 million. Investors will watch for any signs of a structural market turnaround.