Jefferies raised its price target on ThyssenKrupp to €13, upgrading the stock to a “buy” rating, citing improved restructuring progress and higher earnings forecasts. The brokerage lifted its 2026 adjusted EBIT estimate by 5% to €846 million and boosted 2027’s projection by 10% to €1.2 billion, both exceeding analyst consensus. Free cash flow is now seen turning positive by 2026, with a dividend of €0.15 per share proposed, implying a 1.4% yield. Steel Europe drove much of the improvement, with higher adjusted EBIT and lower raw material costs offsetting restructuring costs. €5.3 billion of pension provisions and capital expenditure are tied to this division.

Jefferies’ €13 valuation applies a 20% discount to ThyssenKrupp’s sum-of-parts model, reflecting conglomerate risk and execution uncertainty. The brokerage also valued tk Elevator at €2.1 billion, estimating the stake could reach €3-3.5 billion based on peer multiples. While 2026 revenue is forecast flat at €32.83 billion versus consensus, the upgrade reflects confidence in the steel division’s recovery and cost controls. Steel Europe’s restructuring costs of €400 million in Q1 2026 are expected to peak in fiscal 2026 before declining.

The €13 target represents a 10% premium to current levels, offering investors a potential upside if the steel division’s momentum continues and restructuring costs abate. Jefferies’ analysis suggests the market may be underestimating ThyssenKrupp’s turnaround potential in its core steel business, with Steel Europe now seen as a key catalyst for future performance.