Jefferies analysts called Tesla's robotaxi scaling delay 'hard to understand' after testing services from Zoox, Waymo, and Tesla. They found similar performance in San Francisco, but Tesla's cost per ride was $6.25—less than half the $14 for competitors. The firm's FSD 14.2 robotaxi showed 'very impressive' results in both highway and urban conditions.

Tesla's technology appears market-ready, yet the company remains hesitant to expand beyond Nevada, where it has approval for driverless operation. Jefferies suggests the holdup may be lidar—a sensor Elon Musk has called an 'expensive appendage.' Adopting it would contradict Tesla's camera-only vision and could undermine its plan to convert existing Hardware 4 vehicles into a robotaxi fleet.

The broader industry faces unsettled business models and capital intensity. With costs no longer a barrier, Tesla's reluctance seems strategic rather than technical. Investors will watch if Tesla pivots on lidar or doubles down on its current approach. The delay leaves the door open for rivals to capture market share in key cities like San Francisco and Austin.