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Jefferies Downgrades Sunrun on 2026 Caution, Setting $22 Price Target

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Jefferies lowered Sunrun Inc from Buy to Hold, citing a more defensive 2026 outlook that signals weaker growth and cash flow. The brokerage kept its $22 price target, noting Sunrun’s cautious fourth-quarter commentary diverged from peers’ more optimistic signals. Sunrun now projects softer volume growth, muted cash generation, and continued tax equity market tightening. This contrasts with expectations for a first dividend or share buyback, as management prioritizes balance sheet safety over capital returns. Jefferies sees limited near-term upside until markets stabilize and clearer cash expansion evidence emerges.