The ongoing conflict in Iran is likely to be relatively short, with military operations constrained by available weapons stockpiles, according to a Bank of America (BofA) note citing Evelyn Farkas of the McCain Institute. Farkas predicts the conflict could last only weeks as pressure from Congress and regional allies mounts for a rapid resolution.

Despite recent production increases, weapon supply constraints could quickly become a limiting factor if fighting continues at current operational tempos. BofA analysts warn that stockpiles could be strained if the conflict lasts more than several weeks at current rates. The situation may also influence U.S. defense spending, potentially increasing the likelihood of supplemental funding that could help move defense spending closer to President Trump's $1.5 trillion target.

Geopolitical implications extend beyond the U.S. and Iran, with Russia and China potentially facing strategic drawbacks due to their relationships with Tehran. Energy market disruptions could benefit Russia as a major exporter while creating headwinds for China, which has historically relied on Iranian oil supplies. The base-case outcome involves a diplomatic resolution following the conflict, with Farkas suggesting the most likely scenario would include a new agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at eliminating Tehran's ability to develop nuclear weapons and certain offensive capabilities, alongside continued international monitoring.