Harbour Energy's shares fell in London trading after the company forecasted lower production for 2026, projecting between 435,000 and 455,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This is a significant drop from the 2025 production of 474,000 boepd, which marked an 84% year-on-year increase. Despite the decrease, Harbour achieved the top end of its guidance for 2025, buoyed by strong performance from new wells and recently sanctioned projects.

The drop in shares reflects investor concerns over the company's ability to maintain its strong operational momentum. Harbour's CEO, Linda Cook, attributed 2025's success to strict capital discipline and the integration of new assets. However, the forecast for 2026 includes the impact of planned asset sales and the $3.2 billion acquisition of LLOG, which may be burdening the company's future output capabilities.

Harbour guided total capital expenditure, including decommissioning, at $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion for 2026, reflecting continued portfolio optimization and lower investment in the U.K. At assumed prices of $65 a barrel for oil and $11 per mscf for European gas, Harbour expects free cash flow of around $0.6 billion in 2026, aligning with previous sensitivities. Despite the forecast, Harbour reported a 2025 free cash flow of $1.1 billion, higher than its November view, indicating ongoing operational strength.

Investors are closely watching Harbour's ability to execute on its capital expenditure plans and integrate the LLOG acquisition effectively. The company's focus on cost control and operational efficiency will be critical as it navigates the challenges of maintaining production levels while managing its capital discipline strategy. With the energy sector facing headwinds, Harbour's performance in 2026 will be a key indicator of its resilience and strategic execution.