Shell’s first-quarter earnings more than doubled to $6.915 billion—surpassing analyst expectations of $6.36 billion—driven by oil trading gains and higher prices. The British energy giant’s adjusted earnings rose from $3.26 billion in the prior quarter, reflecting strong commodity activity.

Despite the profit surge, Shell issued a production caution tied to the Middle East conflict. Its integrated gas unit is projected to cut output to between 580,000 to 640,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day—a sharp drop from 909,000 in Q1. This forecast, tied to Q2’s expected conflict impact, signals tangible supply risks for the energy sector.

The earnings beat and production cut coexist to paint a complex picture: while profitability remains solid, operational headwinds loom. Investors should watch for Shell’s Q2 guidance, as the $6.915 billion adjustment and supply forecast could shape energy market dynamics ahead.