Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 Dutch TTF natural gas price forecast to €36 per megawatt hour, up from €29, citing tighter market balances from unseasonably cold weather. The bank estimates January temperatures across northwest Europe will be 1.5 standard deviations colder than average, boosting regional gas consumption by 11% and drawing down inventories faster than previously expected.

This revision reflects a sharp change in fundamentals. Goldman now projects European gas storage will be just 16% full by end-March 2026, down from a prior 28% estimate. The rally has already pushed prompt TTF prices 30% higher week-on-week, moving them out of the lignite switching range and reducing incentives for gas-fired power generation.

The bank’s updated outlook includes a higher first-half average and a lower second-half level, aimed at discouraging demand while supporting a recovery in storage. It also modestly lifted its 2027 forecast to €23 per MWh, reflecting higher carbon emission prices that raise the gas price level needed to switch fuels from gas to coal.

Looking further ahead, Goldman maintains a bearish view for 2028 and 2029, expecting a large global LNG oversupply to pressure prices downward. The bank anticipates storage targets will be more modest, around 80% full by end-October 2026, as rising global LNG supply increases gas availability even in winter months.