Rabobank now projects European natural-gas prices will average €50 euros a megawatt-hour in Q2 2024, significantly higher than its prior estimate of around €31. This sharp increase reflects ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which Rabobank says will persist for weeks, tightening supply chains.

The bank cites escalating geopolitical tensions and reduced pipeline flows as primary drivers behind the price surge. This outlook forces European utilities and industrial consumers to reassess energy budgets and hedge positions immediately. Rabobank's revised forecast signals a structural shift in European gas pricing, with implications for inflation and energy security policies across the continent.