Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 gold price target to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900, citing the materialization of a previously flagged upside risk. Strategist Daan Struyven noted that private-sector diversification into bullion has begun and is expected to persist, lifting the forecast's starting point.

The bank attributes the rally to a broadening of demand beyond central bank purchases, which drove gains in 2023-2024. Western gold ETF holdings have risen roughly 500 tonnes since 2025's start, while newer hedging channels, including physical buying by high-net-worth families, have widened the gap between observed prices and model levels.

Struyven assumes these macro policy hedges will remain stable through 2026, unlike shorter-term election-related hedges from 2024. While he sees risks as two-sided, they remain skewed to the upside. A meaningful improvement in long-term fiscal and monetary policy confidence could, however, trigger an unwind of hedging positions, creating downside risk.