Goldman Sachs has released its 2026 economic outlook for Switzerland, predicting moderate growth and stable interest rates. The brokerage anticipates Swiss economic growth to be 1.2% in 2026, slightly above the Swiss National Bank's forecast, as the country recovers from trade disruptions caused by U.S. tariffs. The U.S.-Switzerland trade deal reached in November, which caps tariffs at 15%, is expected to support economic activity going forward.

The forecast reflects a challenging 2025, marked by front-loaded exports ahead of U.S. tariffs, followed by a slowdown and contraction. Goldman Sachs' projection of 1.2% growth for 2026 considers the impact of weaker growth in the second half of 2025. The brokerage expects growth to run close to potential, estimated at 1.6%, with inflation remaining low but positive throughout 2026. Core inflation is forecasted at around 0.5%, with headline inflation expected to rise toward 0.6% by the end of the year.

For 2027, Goldman Sachs has upgraded its growth estimate to 1.6%, citing the U.S. economics team's view that pharmaceutical tariffs are unlikely to be implemented following the U.S. midterm elections. The brokerage also expects short-term inflation expectations to remain stable, supported by a slight depreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro. This outlook is based on the expectation that euro zone inflation will slow to 1.8% in 2026 and that the European Central Bank will refrain from further easing.

The Swiss National Bank is expected to keep its policy rate on hold at 0% for the foreseeable future, with risks tilted to the downside. A sustained undershoot of inflation below 0% and a meaningful downgrade to the medium-term inflation forecast would be required for the SNB to introduce negative rates. Additionally, Swiss government bond yields are expected to rise gradually toward 0.5%, remaining the lowest among G10 countries.